500 days that changed Malaysia
PETALING JAYA: Friday marked the 500th day since the first movement control order was implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, although the policy has of late been derided following a surge in infections.
Better known as MCO, or sometimes referred to as a lockdown, the movement restrictions came into effect on March 18 last year, ushering in a “new norm” which saw the public adhering to various SOPs.
It spawned various iterations, such as the enhanced MCO (EMCO), the recovery MCO, and various phases of the national recovery plan.
All were not without their problems, especially when it came to the accompanying rules, familarly known as SOPs.
Some businesses were left confused, while others questioned the rationale, for instance, banning dining-in yet allowing eateries to operate until 8pm.
The public meanwhile took issue with the inconsistencies when it came to SOP enforcement, leading to accusations of a double standard when it came to politicians or celebrities who flouted the restrictions.
Azrul Mohd Khalib, the head of a local health think tank, said that while Putrajaya had initially responded well to the pandemic, the country now has one of the highest infection and death rates relative to its population, despite having the strictest restrictions in the region and implementing three lockdowns.
Azrul, who is chief executive of the Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy said failure by government officials and political functions not adhering to the SOPs were partly to blame for a trust deficit and decreasing confidence among the public of the government’s ability to manage the pandemic.
MCO 2.0 and MCO 3.0 proved pointless when the extent of the epidemic in the country became clear, which was nowhere near what it was in March 2020.
“You cannot implement the same failed measure and expect different results and impact,” he told FMT, adding that they had been proven right in predicting that cases would see an upward trend and be unlikely to drop to levels “we had in the past”.
Lockdowns, he said, should always be a “last resort”.
At the current level of infectivity, strict adherence to SOPs and good hygiene practices among the public would likely be more effective than lockdowns, he added.
The saving grace has been the vaccination programme, for which the government deserves much credit, he said, adding that it would ensure the population will be better protected by year-end.
Economist Geoffrey Williams said when the first MCO was imposed, it was expected to be short and the economic impact would be manageable.
Williams said that even Bank Negara had projected a growth contraction of 0.5% or at worst, 2% in April last year, while the World Bank forecast that the lockdown would be manageable with a forecast contraction of only 0.1% for 2020.
In August, however, BNM revised the growth forecast to between minus 3.5% and minus 5.5%, while the World Bank revised its forecasts down to minus 3.1% in June, then minus 4.9% in September.
“The forecasts have proven to be very wrong. GDP fell by 5.6% last year and is likely to be very poor this year because the lockdown has already wiped out nearly 150 (business) days this year, and restrictions may last until December based on the projection of cases,” he said.
To compound matters, average and median salaries fell by 9% and 15.6% respectively, while 6.3 million EPF members have less than RM10,000 in their main retirement fund.
Around 3.4 million people are unemployed or underemployed, which is 19.8% of the workforce, he said.
“Our estimates suggest that the economy will not start to pick up until the first quarter of 2022 and will not recover to pre-crisis levels until 2024. So this will be a long-haul recovery.”
Williams said that there has to be a middle ground to balance lives and livelihoods with “so many groups at the end of their resources”. - FMT
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