Azmin vs. Rafizi: Round 1 goes to incumbent

PKR Deputy President Azmin Ali is in the lead in his race for re-election against Rafizi Ramli.

In Penang, Azmin won 3,326 votes to Rafizi’s 3,150, and in Johor, Azmin won 4,503 votes to Rafizi’s 3,976. The total to date should thus be 7,829 for Azmin and 7,126.

It’s very early yet, and this is obviously by no means an unassailable lead. Azmin’s early momentum may allow us to speculate on a few things (and importantly, speculation is all this is).

One of the most interesting things about PKR’s elections is that it is the only political party in which every single member is given a vote.

This was welcomed as a great step forward in terms of democratic principles and rightly so.

One possible reason PKR president designate Anwar Ibrahim spearheaded the transition to this novel and laudable system was a belief that his own personal popularity within the party would be largely able to sway votes whichever way he wanted.

It is possible that this is not playing out a hundred percent the way Anwar envisaged.

Popular, not in crowds that matter

Let’s take a look at how the different strengths of the Azmin versus Rafizi camps may be playing out in these elections.

Rafizi is in general quite a popular guy. The success and immense popularity of Invoke among the general public was certainly felt in GE14.

The thing is though, the general public does not vote in party elections - only party members do.

I think the average Malaysiakini reader is a great representative example. I would hazard that more readers here like Rafizi than don’t, and might have voted for him over Azmin. I would also hazard, however, that the majority of Malaysiakini readers are not PKR members or members of any political party.

In reflecting on this, we should think about sentiments towards membership in Malaysian political parties in general.

I think among the middle and upper classes, there is a probably a certain amount of stigma attached to being a member of a political party.

This stems from the sentiment that politics is a somewhat dirty business, and that partisanship is perhaps something that polite and cultured people should avoid.

Also, few political parties are so ‘pure’, or so free from shortcomings to be a natural long-term home for idealists.

Understanding who joins parties

In short, it is probably more ‘fashionable’ to not be a member of a party than it is to be one.

For the average busy working class person, perhaps going to the trouble of becoming a member of a political party is likely only worth it if such membership is helpful to their own lives.

In both cases, there are of course the few that seek to join political parties to pursue a political career.

We are not trying to over-generalise of course, and undoubtedly there are very many idealistic and driven Malaysians from all classes that join a party as part of their dedication to doing their part in creating a better Malaysia for us and our children.

That said, I don’t think the general trend described above has changed too much. Doing a straw poll among your friends and acquaintances to see if any of them are or have become members of a political party could test the theory.

Against such a backdrop, we may see why Rafizi finds himself in a slight disadvantage so far. Perhaps the results would have been different if it was an election in which all Malaysians were able to vote.

As it stands, the electorate here are people who have taken the step to become PKR members, for whatever reasons.

What can each candidate offer?

While Rafizi has shown great acumen in mobilising the general public ahead of GE14, perhaps it is Azmin who is showing greater acumen (whether ethical or not) in mobilising party members.

In Rafizi’s accusation regarding the polling at Labis he alludes to Azmin’s people being everywhere, including embedded in the election staff, influencing the results.

Someone like me would have no idea whether these accusations are true or not, but I think long-time followers of PKR politics would not be surprised if Azmin was indeed demonstrating better internal party organisation.

Not long after GE14, around the time that positions such as local councillors in Selangor were being announced, there was some uproar in the PKR grassroots, featuring people who complained that they were sidelined in favour of Azmin loyalists.

As a minister with a huge portfolio and likely still the power behind Selangor, Azmin has a lot to offer members whose priority may be positions and sources of income - something Rafizi is obviously not in the same position to provide.

The Azmin camp could plausibly say, in the “finest” tradition of feudal politics in Malaysia, “Look what happened in Selangor. Now, do you want to be on the outside, or the inside?”

Neutralising Umno bloc

Besides a tirade against “hand-kissing culture”, which may be seen as a jibe against Anwar, Azmin also recently predicted an upcoming exodus within Umno, which would leave the party with only three or four MPs by the end of the month.

This seems to be in line with some observations I made regarding the unfolding power dynamics in the Bersatu-PKR-Umno triangle.

The speculation was that Anwar was attempting to make a deal with Umno as a bloc to serve as insurance against any move by Bersatu to neuter him.

Bersatu's - and perhaps Azmin's - response would then perhaps be to disassemble Umno and make offers to their MPs on a more one-by-one basis, distributing them across many different parties and factions, making it much harder for Anwar to make any kind of deal, especially without anything yet in hand to bargain with.

The lack of cohesion and momentum in the rather dismal Umno general assembly this last weekend seems to point in this direction as well.

Ultimately, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had little to offer in terms of leadership besides hollow sound and empty fury.

If he does not have a firm grip on the party and its MPs, then someone in Anwar’s position needs to deal with almost each MP on an individual basis rather than just with the leader.

Anwar PM for how long?

Needless to say, these are all once again just mere speculations of an observer of politics and again, Azmin’s lead could be completely overturned at any point for all we know.

In closing, there is a thought that has been on my mind, one that opens a whole other can of worms, well beyond the scope of this article.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed and his team have been saying time and time again that Anwar will indeed succeed him as prime minister.

No one has said anything, however, about how long they are planning for Anwar to occupy that seat.

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NATHANIEL TAN is deeply saddened by the death of the six divers. -Mkini

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