As Covid-19 cases rise, which way will Umno move?
PETALING JAYA: The rising number of Covid-19 cases may force Umno to put on hold its plans to quit the ruling coalition but it is likely to strike back — unless it is able to get into the “driving seat” in government, say political analysts.
Former Universiti Teknologi Malaysia academic Azmi Hassan said Umno’s game plan would either be to quit the government in the hope of fresh elections being called, or to work things out with PPBM to be given the driver’s seat.
“They will also try to work things out with PAS so that it is with them when Parliament is dissolved,” Azmi told FMT.
It was not likely that Umno would work with the DAP to form a new government, he said.
The hatred among its members towards the Chinese-based party was deep. “But with multiracial PKR, it is still possible to work. The grassroots can still accept it,” he added.
Azmi expected Umno to force immediate elections if a national Covid-19 vaccination campaign manages to curb the pandemic.
“Umno’s actions will depend on Covid-19 numbers,” he added.
The party’s supreme council has deferred any decision on its support for PPBM to its annual general assembly at the end of this month.
However, Azmi said it was the grassroots that was pushing the leadership to quit the governing coalition and the political turmoil would only cool off when Umno was in the driver’s seat. “Meaning PPBM may have to give way.”
Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi would need to take a strong stand to ensure all members were united during the turmoil.
He said Umno was divided and Zahid had to take somewhat draconian measures to preserve party unity, in a reference to the removal of Annuar Musa from his position as Barisan Nasional secretary-general.
He said PPBM was in no position to “react vociferously against Umno as a divorce will render the party politically almost impotent” because it lacked the electoral support that Umno enjoyed.
“PPBM has also been abandoned by the progressive minority who still sulk over its betrayal of (Pakatan Harapan) during the Sheraton Move,” he said, referring to PPBM’s linking up with PAS, Umno, and others which caused the collapse of the PH government in February 2020.
Oh said PPBM’s only lifeline was its relationship with PAS. “Otherwise PPBM has limited choices and has to accede to Umno.”
However, PAS was likely to team up with Umno once Parliament was dissolved as it was likely to win more seats collaborating with Umno, said Oh.
But another political analyst, Kenneth Cheng, said the government might not collapse if Umno withdrew support for the ruling coalition.
“PH collapsed because the prime minister (then Mahathir Mohamad) resigned. But the current prime minister (Muhyiddin Yassin) may not want to resign and has a choice of working with other parties to make up the numbers (to secure a majority in the Dewan Rakyat),” he told FMT.
Cheng, who is a member of Agora Society, a loose network of intellectuals, said Muhyiddin also had the choice of advising the King on the timing of the dissolution of Parliament.
Furthermore, he said, it might be idealistic for Umno to eye an election by March this year due to the Covid-19 situation. Malaysia reported a record high 3,025 cases yesterday.
“Even though the political situation remains fluid after clearer signs of conflict between Umno and PPBM, the timing of the polls will also depend on Covid-19 numbers and whether the vaccine works,” he added.
However, he said Umno knew the longer it waited, the higher the possibility of PPBM recruiting Umno members. Umno would therefore go all out to work with PAS while waiting for Covid-19 cases to be brought under control. - FMT
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