Who will win hot seats in Malacca?
MALACCA POLLS | With less than 48 hours away, the remaining 482,549 voters of the total electorate of 495,195 will be carrying out their responsibility in the Malacca election on Saturday and the battle for three hot seats has yet to see clear winners.
The three seats, Tanjung Bidara, Asahan and Telok Mas have been seeing intense campaigns by heavyweight candidates from BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
In Tanjung Bidara, the focus is on state Umno liaison committee chairperson Ab Rauf Yusoh of BN, Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Parliament and Law) Mas Ermieyati Samsudin representing PN and Pakatan Harapan's Zainal Hassan.
In Asahan, the contest involves former chief minister Idris Haron (Harapan) who switched seats from Sungai Udang, Mohd Noor Salleh (Independent), Malacca Umno Youth chief Fairul Nizam Roslan (BN), Azmar Ab Hamid @ Sha'aim (Independent), B Dhanesh (PN) and Mohd Akhir Ayob (Independent).
Telok Mas is seeing a clash involving Malacca Bersatu head Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen (PN), Muhammad Ariff Adly Mohammad (Independent), Ashraf Mukhlis Minghat (Harapan) and Kota Melaka Umno division chief Abdul Razak Abdul Rahman (BN).
Heavyweights seem to have equal support
Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) Human Ecology Faculty lecturer Mohd Izani Mohd Zain said he sees Ab Rauf, Mas Ermieyati, Idris and Rafiq, receiving equal support with their opponents based on several factors.
“In Tanjung Bidara, Ab Rauf and Mas Ermieyati have experience in terms of administration and politics but at the same time, they are tainted with issues such as party hopping and integrity.
“Idris may have the support of non-Malay voters from Harapan in Asahan but the death of Alor Gajah Umno division chief Abdul Ghafar Atan may result in sympathy votes going to BN,” he said when contacted by Bernama today.
Idris, 55, who was Malacca chief minister for five years from 2013 was a local boy of Kampung Relau, Asahan and was also the former deputy higher education minister when he was Tangga Batu MP.
Commenting on the chances of Rafiq in Telok Mas, Izani said the earlier seat incumbent Noor Effandi Ahmad gave way for Bersatu to set foot in the area after winning with a majority of 1,288 votes in the 14th general election (GE14).
He said Telok Mas is an Umno stronghold but the victory of Noor Effandi in GE14 may be due to protest votes from the people following the negative sentiments against Umno over 1MDB.
"Maybe Bersatu put Rafiq in Telok Mas so that votes for the party would remain but protest votes could spoil things and the trend can change based on the sentiments in the campaign,” he added.
Asked on the three hot seats involving Lendu, Sungai Udang and Bukit Katil which are respectively being contested by former chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali, state Umno liaison committee deputy chairperson Mohamad Ali Mohamad and another former chief minister Adly Zahari, Izani said the three are expected to win easily in their respective constituencies.
He said this is because this election is the third Sulaiman is standing in Lendu apart from the strong grassroots support and the campaign focus on continuing government projects which could only happen if he is reappointed as chief minister.
"Ali is seen as being comfortable in Sungai Udang as it is a fix deposit for the ruling party as there is a large military camp in the area. The incentives tabled in Budget 2022 for armed forces personnel would please such voters, I believe they would give their support to the ruling party,” he added.
Izani said Adly stands a good chance of defending the Bukit Katil seat he won in GE14 as he still has the aura as the former chief minister from Harapan apart from aggressively reaching out to voters in his campaign.
Voter turnout
Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) School of Social Sciences lecturer Sivamurugan Pandian expects a high turnout rate would give an advantage to BN and Harapan in the state election.
He said at the moment, there are many factors influencing the percentage of turnout, among them, the people may feel that there is no need to hold the state election when the state government collapsed in the Covid-19 pandemic and it was time for the government to prioritise the people.
He said protest votes among them would be seen as being against the ongoing politicking and the voters are angry as well as disappointed with the situation in the country.
“I would not be surprised if the voter turnout is low, giving advantage to BN and if it increased as in 2018 which was at 82 percent, it would favour Harapan.
“(Nonetheless) in this context, it (voter turnout) would not achieve the rate as in 2018 and perhaps the percentage may be far lower unless party machinery goes out in large numbers to persuade voters so as not to protest against the election and support their respective parties to ensure the process of democracy is preserved,” Sivamurugan added.
- Bernama
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