'Despite PN's confidence, its fortunes are tied to last-minute Umno-PAS moves'

International Trade and Industry Minister Azmin Ali had confidently declared on Monday that Perikatan Nasional could call for snap polls at any time as it has succeeded in solving the country's crises - but analysts say such optimism must be tempered with caution.

While they agree that Malay Muslim voters, which make up the bulk of the electorate, favour the PN government, any challenge to the coalition's sustainability in the next general election will come from within.

Political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi, who is with Universiti Malaya, said PN's fate in the 15th general election does not only rely on its performance but also on other factors such as any eleventh-hour decision by Umno and PAS.

"For example, Umno and PAS could, at the last minute, decide to rely on Muafakat Nasional and not want to be involved with PN.

"At the last minute, Umno and PAS could change their positions and want an Umno candidate for the prime ministerial post and a PAS candidate for the deputy prime ministerial post," Awang Azman (photo, below) said.

The Pakatan Harapan government collapsed in late February after Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin pulled his party out of the coalition government.

Muhyiddin was sworn in as the new prime minister on March 1, after Mahathir refused to lead a new coalition Muhyiddin put together, comprising Bersatu, PKR defectors, BN, PAS, GPS, PBS and STAR.

Muhyiddin has been working to formalise the PN coalition so that its component parties can contest under the platform in the next general election.

However, some Umno leaders believe Umno and PAS can win the next general election without having to make concessions to Bersatu, particularly on electoral seat allocations.

'No guarantee PN will come up on top in a snap poll'

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre research director Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said there is no guarantee PN will come up on top in a snap poll, unless it resolves its internal political issues, particularly on seat distribution.

"PN's ability to win the general election will not only rely on its ability to solve health and economic issues alone.

"More importantly, it is its ability to resolve PN's internal politics," Mohd Yusri told Malaysiakini.

He said PN stands a good chance of winning GE15 if the component parties can agree to go into the general election as one unit and with a common logo.

Muhyiddin's current position as prime ministerial, he added, is also generally well-received and his continued candidacy as prime minister will help the coalition.

However, Mohd Yusri noted, apart from the difficulties in seat allocation, there is also no consensus within PN for Muhyiddin to continue on as prime minister after the next general election.

"If these issues are not harmoniously resolved, then there is no guarantee they can continue to control Putrajaya in the next general election," he said.

Both analysts agree that PN is unlikely to get non-Malay support while its base appears to be from Malay Muslims residing in rural regions or from a lower social-economic status.

"For urban Malays from the middle class and above, the majority are still taking a wait and see approach towards PN to evaluate their performance," Mohd Yusri said.

Young voters may also be disillusioned with the current political instability, he said, and noted that their share of the electorate is still relatively small, compared with the older voters. - Mkini

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