PBB Pulls Out Of BN, Tun Dr M Will Soon Control > 2/3 In Parliament, Braders Chances Dimmer

Folks,  this is the end of the BN.  It is really Be End.  UMNO is also dead. I am just stating the arithmetic ok.

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/bahasa/s/53049

Abang Jo beritahu keputusan keluar BN kepada Dr Mahathir 31 Mei lalu

PBB pemerintah terbesar di Sarawak keluar BN 

Zahid Hamidi merayu mereka jangan buat demikian

Langkah PBB ini mengikis 13 kerusi Parlimen dpd BN

melemahkan lagi BN 

Pada PRU14 BN menang 79 kerusi

(Termasuk UMNO 54, MIC 2, MCA 1)

Penarikan PBB menyebabkan pemimpin Umno dan BN keluar beramai-ramai  

Abang Jo beritahu keputusan kpd Dr Mahathir 31 Mei lalu

Abang Jo yakinkan Dr M, S'wak akan sokong PH 

Abang Jo temu Zahid di KL 

Zahid rayu pada Abang Jo jangan meneruskan penarikan dari BN

Zahid guna perkataan "hancur" sekiranya hilang 19 kerusi S'wak di Parlimen

BN 79 dpd 222 kerusi di Parlimen 

13 dpdnya milik PBB, parti kedua besar dalam BN

Zahid beritahu Abang Jo BN akan hancur jika PBB keluar 

Jawapan Abang Jo ialah PBB boleh kalah PRU negeri S'wak 2021 

jika tidak menjarakkan diri dpd BN yang terpalit rasuah

PRU14, BN S'wak tanding semua 31 kerusi 

tapi hanya menang 19, keputusan yg mengejutkan 

BN negeri mungkin bentuk gabungan baru dpd parti politik di S'wak

tiga lagi komponen BN S'wak: Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Parti Rakyat Bersatu Sarawak (SUPP) dan Parti Pembangunan Progresif (PDP).

Parti Rakyat Bersatu Sarawak (SUPP) juga masuk gabungan baru 

SUPP buat keputusan keluar BN 15 Mei 

My comments :  

Of 222 Parliamentary seats, the BN secured only 79 or 35.5%.

To get a 2/3 majority you need 148 seats. 

Now with the exit of PBB of Sarawak,  13 more seats have been lost by the BN . 

So the BN is down to 66 seats in Parliament.

The Pakatan Harapan won 113. 

Together with Parti Warisan (8??) they have 121 seats.

Now with PBB forming a friendly party in Parliament the PH controls 121 + 13 = 134 seats.  

The six more BN seats in S'wak may or will move over to PH as well. 

Then the PH will have 140 seats in Parliament.

Just 8 seats short of the 2/3 majority.

That will leave the BN with only 60 seats.  

PAS has 18 seats. 

(There are 4 more seats left somewhere lah.)

Now read this sentence carefully :   

Penarikan PBB menyebabkan pemimpin Umno dan BN keluar beramai-ramai  

Yes this is likely. UMNO MPs may see that it is time to dump the party.

There is a strong rumour that UP TO 45 UMNO MPs are on this list. 

Yes folks - 45 UMNO MPs.  

UMNO has to do something really quick or lose their party forever.

If 45 UMNO MPs leave the party, UMNO may as well dissolve and deregister itself.  

Even without the MPs leaving UMNO,  the arithmetic above already denies Brader any chance to overthrow Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed. 

With this kind of movement of Sarawak MPs leaving BN (and possible MPs leaving UMNO in the near future)  any hopes by the Brader  of forming a PKR + UMNO + PAS alliance to unseat Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed have been effectively dashed.  

Also the Sarawak, Sabah and any MPs leaving UMNO in future are NOT party to any agreement to hand over the PM's position to Brader.  There is no written agreement.  The idea that Brader  will become PM in two years is becoming dimmer and dimmer.

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