Twin by-elections will change the game

By Liew Chin Tong

The outcome of the twin by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar will have huge bearing on the political realignment nationally.

Since the 2013 General Election, Malaysia has experienced several massive political earthquakes.

First, after two years of intense battle, the conservatives and progressives in PAS split in June 2015. Hadi’s conservative wing swung to Umno and became the latter’s “political advisor” while the progressives formed Amanah.

Second, after intense internal pressure on the prime minister, Najib Razak, about the 1MDB scandal and a donation placed in his bank account, the deputy prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, was sacked on July 28, 2015. Subsequently, former prime minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad quit Umno on February 29, and launched the “Citizen’s Declaration” on March 4.

Third, while Amanah was formed on Sept 16, 2015, and Pakatan Harapan on Sept 22, 2015, the factions in Parti Keadilan Rakyat have yet to agree on whether to back Amanah as opposed to PAS, and to make Pakatan Harapan the only opposition coalition.

The outcome of the twin by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar on June 18 will help clarify the muddied current situation.

With Umno and PAS now effectively in a de facto coalition, will they both gain votes or cannibalise into each other’s base? If the voters abandon PAS, will the outcome hasten a second split of PAS?

How strong is Amanah and Pakatan Harapan in the eyes of the voters?

How much influence is wielded by Umno’s Team B, in particular Dr Mahathir? Can they deliver disgruntled Umno votes to the Amanah candidates?

If the results clearly show that Amanah is ahead of PAS in terms of voter’s support, perhaps it will help ensure that the factions in PKR finally come to a consensus to back Amanah and support Pakatan Harapan.

If Umno garners less than half the total votes, the outcome may prompt fresh efforts to dislodge Najib.

In short, the twin by-elections will have a huge impact on national political realignments.

Liew Chin Tong, MP for Kluang, is national political education director of the DAP.

With a firm belief in freedom of expression and without prejudice, FMT tries its best to share reliable content from third parties. Such articles are strictly the writer’s personal opinion. FMT does not necessarily endorse the views or opinions given by any third party content provider.