Shahbudin: Johor MB crisis ‘storm in a tea cup’

KUALA LUMPUR: A political analyst noted in his latest blog posting that there were six Deputy Ministers in the Federal Cabinet from Johor, Ahmad Maslan, Razali Ibrahim, Aziz Kaprawi, Hamim Samuri, Nur Jazlan Mohamed and Halimah Saddique. “The question that arises, in the wake of current developments in the state, is which of them has the potential to lead the movement to overthrow the current Menteri Besar Khaled Nordin.”

Shahbudin Husin the analyst added that not many were surprised by speculation about Khaled being kicked out from his post especially when it was said that the rebellion was led by a Deputy Minister. “The Deputy Minister eyeing the post is an open secret.”

“The rebel leader was reportedly close to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and even brags about their relationship.”

It’s also well-known that Khaled has been rather ‘slow’ in expressing support for Najib.

The analyst was commenting on the issue breaking into the open after the son of the Johor Speaker referred to it for the first time. “He can’t be raising an issue that does not exist.”

Even so, cautioned Shahbudin, politics in Johor is a little different from that in other states as the Istana enters the picture as well. “It’s not enough to have Najib’s support or the support of the assemblymen and Umno divisional chiefs.”

“The Sultan eventually decides who should be Menteri Besar. If push comes to shove, the Opposition already has 18 seats in the Johor Assembly. So, it won’t be easy for Umno to retain power in the state by removing Khaled before GE14.”

Khaled has not only excellent relations with the Sultan, they were schoolmates at one time, noted the analyst. “There has never been any problems between the Sultan and Khaled.”

“There are also no parallels between Khaled and Mukhriz Mahathir who was ousted recently as Kedah Menteri Besar.”

In short, the question of removing Khaled before the 14th General Election in 2018 does not arise. “It would be a difficult task. Besides, the Istana would not go along with any decision to remove Khaled,” warned Shahbudin.

If the anti-Khaled movement reportedly led by the Deputy Minister was looking at the post-GE14 situation in Johor, it would be a different matter. “It would not be something out of the ordinary for the said Deputy Minister to lobby for the Menteri Besar’s post in preparation for the GE14 scenario,” agreed Shahbudin. “This probably comes back to the ‘no effort, no gain’ theory. The Deputy Minister may be acting along these lines in order to achieve his political aspirations and what he wants to get out of life.”

Still, said the analyst, whether the movement led by him succeeds or otherwise would depend on many factors. “There are many things that could go wrong come the post-GE14 situation.”

For starters, it’s not exactly a certainty that Najib would still remain Prime Minister after GE14, that Umno would retain power in Johor in 2018, and again, there’s the question on whether the Sultan would agree that Khaled be replaced as Menteri Besar by the said Deputy Minister or someone else.

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