The Chinese swing

The Chinese get mentioned a lot after votes are counted in any election. Indeed, their votes have the power to change the shape of a election, and often do so depending on economic and social circumstances.

Now let’s remember that the Chinese make up roughly 30% of the country’s population. This means that a large enough swing from them could give Barisan Nasional a supermajority (assuming that BN gets most of the Malay votes) or, as we saw in 2008, more opposition representation in Chinese-dominated areas. This makes appealing to the Chinese community essential in determining the future direction of the country.

The results of the Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar by-elections are not good news for the opposition parties, whichever demographic you happen to be looking at. The split in the pro-opposition vote and the apparent instability of the Pakatan Harapan coalition exposed the opposition as weak and vulnerable to the experienced gamesmanship of BN. A last-second hudud panic only served to cut deeper into Pakatan’s talking points as PAS happily crowed the upcoming debate on Hadi Awang’s private member’s bill and its new friendship with Umno.

By and large, the Pakatan experiment is close to collapsing. PKR seems on the verge of a civil war. And with Zaid Ibrahim making the reasonable suggestion that Amanah and DAP together get out of the coalition before they get dragged into PKR’s mess, public confidence in Pakatan is at an all time low.

As for PAS, it must now realise after being soundly trashed in the by-elections that it needs to widen its appeal. But it has already succeeded in alienating its moderates and progressives. If it does intend to return to somewhat moderate ground, it faces a long slog. It will probably have to contend with much protest from within as well as without. The Chinese, ever wary of hudud, will never embrace PAS’ campaign for the strengthening of the shariah courts, and will likely look at any overture from Hadi with disdain and suspicion, given the community’s ingrained support for DAP and the recent memories of PAS’ demonisation of the party.

Not all Chinese will abandon the opposition. Many of the young members of the community are starry-eyed idealists. This much is proven in the somewhat angry reactions to news that BN had reclaimed Chinese votes in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar. Many pointed their fingers at the instability of Pakatan and its inability to win the Malay vote without PAS as the reason behind the BN victories.

But in truth, Malaysian Chinese are practical in all things, no matter how idealistic some of them would like to think they are. The current economic uncertainty could well translate into a swing back to BN in GE14 should the opposition parties continue to discredit themselves in the eyes of those who would otherwise be more than happy to support them. No one wants to deal with a political crisis and an economic one at the same time.