After Sarawak, Johor is the new political frontline

By Liew Chin Tong

This is my first public event in Kluang since being diagnosed with Bell’s palsy on January 7, 2016. I am recovering well and wish to thank the people of Kluang for their concern. I would also like to thank my staff for their hard work during my absence, as well as the leadership of DAP State Secretary cum State Opposition Leader Gan Peck Cheng during my absence.

Malaysian politics has experienced a major realignment over the months following Muhyiddin Yassin’s removal as Deputy Prime Minister on July 28, 2015, and the signing of the Citizens’ Declaration on March 4, 2016. After the Sarawak State Election, all eyes will turn to Johor which is the new political frontline. Let me explain why.

Even if we do not take into consideration the Muhyiddin factor and the split in Johor Umno (especially the recent attempt to remove Khaled Nordin as Menteri Besar), based on the results of the last general election in 2013, it could be predicted that a mere 5% swing would cause Barisan Nasional (BN) to lose seven state seats and seven parliamentary seats.

With a 10% swing, BN will lose another seven seats and four additional parliamentary seats. In other words, a 10% swing will deprive BN of 14 state seats and 11 parliamentary seats. The 11 parliamentary seats do not include Muhyiddin’s Pagoh and other seats within his sphere of influence.

Johor has a total of 56 seats. It would take 29 seats to win state power.

Johor has 26 parliamentary seats. The Opposition won five seats in the last election. BN is currently ruling with 134 out of 222 seats. Johor provides the opportunity for the Opposition to win at least 11 more parliamentary seats, bringing it closer to federal power.

With a 5% swing, the following BN state seats will fall:

Gambir
Paloh
Mahkota
Nusajaya
Bukit Naning
Pemanis
Sungai Balang

With a 10% swing, BN will lose the following state seats:

Senggarang
Semerah
Serom
Tenang
Kempas
Kemelah
Pulai Sebatang

With a 5％ swing, BN will lose the following Parliamentary seats:

Pasir Gudang
Labis
Tebrau
Segamat
Ledang
Pulai

Muar

With 10% swing, BN will lose the following parliamentary seats:

Sekijang
Tanjong Piai
Johor Bahru
Sri Gading

Johor DAP and our allies will work hard to win the support of more voters to prepare Johor as the frontline state for a change of government at the federal and state levels.

Liew Chin Tong is DAP National Political Education Director and MP for Kluang.

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